Tesla’s Q4 2024: A Closer Look at Market Moves and Trading Bots

Tesla’s Q4 2024 results just dropped, and honestly, they weren’t great. Deliveries came in at 495,570, which missed Wall Street’s expectations out of the park. Analysts were banking on numbers between 504,770 and 506,763, and here we are. Tesla produced 459,445 vehicles over the quarter, marking its first annual delivery decline in years. They delivered about 1.79 million cars in 2024, a slight decrease from the previous year. Now that’s a bummer for anyone following the company’s growth trajectory.

That said, the stocks took a major hit, dropping 7% after a massive 63% rally earlier this year. No one wants to see that kind of fall after such a high.

Analyst Expectations and Investors’ Pain

Analysts’ expectations were off by a lot. StreetAccount had delivery numbers at 504,770, while Tesla told everyone to expect around 506,000. Even Troy Teslike, who usually nails these things, went for 501,000. All had their hopes crushed when deliveries came in at 495,570.

Compared to Q4 of last year, deliveries barely moved. That was another letdown, as you might have guessed. With measures like price cuts and incentives failing to entice buyers, it’s clear that everyone betting on Tesla for a strong showing this quarter lost.

Elon himself tried to calm the waters during an April earnings call. He anticipated sales to be higher this year than last but warned that the growth rate wouldn’t be anything like the 38% the company achieved in 2023. Spot on.

The Distractions and the Bots

Now, let’s not forget, Tesla’s recent problems aren’t only about sales or production. Elon’s been a distraction too. The man threw down $277 million to support President Trump and campaigned like a true believer in swing states.

As for the bots, with all this volatility, it seems like automated futures trading bots are catching on with investors. They can analyze loads of market data to predict trends and make forecasts. But when the market takes an unexpected dive, they struggle.

Technical issues or blindly optimizing based on past data can lead to major trade fails. Bots may be free of emotional biases but they can’t react to surprises like humans can. A sudden major company announcement affecting stock prices? The bot has no clue what’s just hit it.

High-frequency trading and AI-driven trading can add to the chaos. The 2010 flash crash was a prime example of how algorithmic trades can disrupt the market.

Despite all of this, Elon’s looking towards 2025. He has plans for cheaper autonomous vehicles and ramped up production. He thinks Tesla will produce 20%-30% more in 2025 than this year. His team has set ambitious goals, aiming for 2.5 million vehicles next year.

Analysts are a bit more cautious, projecting a rise in revenue from $107.12 billion in 2024 to $127.61 billion in 2025. Earnings per share may increase 37% to $3.87, but stock price predictions are all over the place.

The Road Ahead

Tesla’s Q4 performance has raised questions about its future direction. The company’s facing challenges, from missed delivery targets to Elon’s political distractions. And with the market reacting quickly, stakes are high. Automated trading bots are providing just a glimpse into the potential future of trading strategies. Tesla has big plans for 2025, but adapting is key. It’ll be interesting to see if they can weather this storm and what it looks like on the other side.